The Odds

As we explained in our first edition of The Basics, what takes place every five years is two elections with three lists of candidates.  For big parties, maximum participation means filling the candidate quotas in all three lists.  Insight projects this year that only one political party will have maximum participation, the incumbent PPP/C.  APNU, we estimate, will fill the full Top Up list for the general election but may have difficulty filling all Geographical Lists.  For the AFC, ANUG-WIN and FGM they will fill the National Top Up list, but will aim for the bare minimum for Geographical but will not participate in the Regional Elections.  See our graph on our projected odds for these key participants.